GVR says demand may be stabilizing after a rough first half of 2025

Metro Vancouver’s housing market saw a 9.8% drop in home sales year over year in June, but local realtors believe conditions are beginning to turn a corner after a sluggish start to the year.

Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reported that residential sales came in at 2,181 last month, down from 2,418 in June 2024, and 25.8% below the 10-year seasonal average of 2,940 transactions.

Despite the year-over-year decline, the board says the monthly drop is only half the size of May’s, signaling an early-stage recovery.

“On a trended basis, signs are emerging that sales activity is rounding the corner after a challenging first half to the year,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics. “If this momentum continues, it may not be long before sales are up year-over-year, which would mark a shift toward a market with more demand than the unusually low demand we’ve seen so far this year.”

Inventory glut

There were 6,315 new listings added to the MLS in June, up 10.3% from the same month in 2024 and 12.7% above the 10-year average. The total inventory in the region rose to 17,561, marking a 23.8% increase over June 2024 and 43.7% higher than the 10-year seasonal average.

The overall sales-to-active listings ratio in June stood at 12.8%, indicating balanced market conditions. By segment, the ratio was 9.9% for detached homes, 16.9% for attached, and 13.9% for apartments.

According to GVR, ratios below 12% over sustained periods typically point to downward pressure on prices, while values tend to rise when the ratio exceeds 20%.

“As home sales regain their footing, inventory levels aren’t building as quickly as we’ve seen lately,” Lis said in the report. “Most market segments remain in balanced market conditions, which has generally kept prices trending sideways since the start of the year.

“With over 17,000 listings on the market right now, and with mortgage rates down around two per cent since last summer, buyers are enjoying some of the most favourable conditions seen in years.”

Signs of stabilization

The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price across all residential properties in Metro Vancouver stood at $1,173,100, a 2.8% decrease year over year, and down 0.3% from May 2025.

Despite some signs of stabilization, a Reuters poll forecasts a 2% decline in home prices in Vancouver and a 4% drop in Toronto for 2025. However, some experts believe the worst of the correction has already occurred.

Detached home sales totaled 657 units, a 5.3% decline from June 2024. The benchmark price fell to $1,994,500, down 3.2% year over year and 0.1% from May.

Apartment sales posted a larger drop, down 16.5% to 1,040 units, with a benchmark price of $748,400, representing a 3.2% decline from June 2024 and 1.2% from May.

However, attached home sales rose 3.7% year over year to 473 units. The benchmark price for townhomes was $1,103,900, down 3% annually and 0.3% monthly.

Vancouver condo market avoids Toronto-level slump – for now

While condo market conditions in Vancouver remain soft, the city is still outperforming Toronto, where oversupply is pushing the segment toward deeper corrections. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) flagged both Vancouver and Toronto as high-risk condo markets due to the significant slowdown in recent sales activity.

In Toronto, condo purchase activity has plunged by 75% since 2022, compared to a 37% decline in Vancouver, according to CMHC data. In April, over 2,000 new condo units in Vancouver were unsold and unoccupied — the highest level in more than a decade.

Even so, local industry professionals are not ringing alarm bells just yet.

“I think it’s a bit more difficult in Toronto than here,” Anthony Zhang, a mortgage broker with DLC Clear Trust Mortgages, said in a recent interview with Canadian Mortgage Professional. “I see there’s some challenges on the supply side, and people are struggling to sell. But I think the problem is getting even worse in Toronto.”

By Candyd Mendoza 07 Jul. 2025

source: mpamag.com

link: https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/vancouver-home-sales-slide-in-june-but-housing-market-recovery-could-be-near-says-board/541631

A tale of two condo markets continues to unfold in Toronto and Vancouver, with the former seeing steeper price declines.

Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist with the BC Real Estate Association, points to CREA data that shows “wild divergence” between Toronto and Vancouver’s apartment prices since a convergence in 2022, with Toronto’s prices down about 20 per cent, while Vancouver’s are just slightly off from the peak.

“There must be a much bigger amount of excess supply in Toronto than Vancouver,” he told Real Estate Magazine. “It’s much worse in Toronto.”

What’s happening in Vancouver 

Ogmundson noted that although Vancouver has seen a lot of construction over the past five years, many of those units are still in progress or intended as rentals, so supply hasn’t flooded the market all at once. 

He expects some downward pressure on Vancouver prices soon as inventory accumulates and demand softens, though likely not to the same extent as in Toronto.  

Toronto’s sudden downturn

“Vancouver is very much lagging Toronto,” said realtor Jarrod Armstrong with Right At Home Realty, noting that Toronto hit a peak in 2022 and the entire industry has been “flipped upside down” since then.

Armstrong said Toronto, where he is based, has been hit by a volley of changes in the last three years, like higher interest rates, a ban on foreign buyers, changes to Airbnb rules, and vacant home taxes, which have all sent investors fleeing.

“A lot has really hit the market all at once,” he said. “It’s really a perfect storm hitting the Toronto condo market.”

Armstrong said Toronto overbuilt small 350- to 450-square-feet condos mainly geared toward investors, but that are not so attractive to other buyers. That has resulted in a surplus of inventory and weak demand, which has sent prices falling. 

“(Small condos) have literally lost a quarter of their value,” he said. “They’re really just unsellable.”

Armstrong said that in a given month, there might be 3,000 condos for sale but only 300 sales. The city is now seeing a fall in preconstruction sales and projects abandoned left and right, according to Armstrong. 

To add insult to injury, tariffs from the U.S. have injected uncertainty into the economy that has “ruined” the spring condo market, he said. 

Vancouver: Smaller scale, similar issues

In Vancouver, realtor Ron Parpara with eXp Realty told REM that he thinks the main reason prices have fared better there than in Toronto is that it is a smaller city. That means there’s less space to build and less stock to outweigh demand. 

That said, he noted that the city is still feeling a market slowdown and there has been some dip in prices.

“We’re in a similar situation, just maybe in a little bit of a smaller scale with Toronto,” he said. “Sales are not keeping up with the supply.”

Parpara said Vancouver has the highest inventory in the last 11 years and there’s more coming online, and they just had the slowest May in the last 20 years. Vancouver has taken similar steps against investors as Toronto, including a vacant home tax and an Airbnb tax, according to Parpara. 

As a result, he said about 90 per cent of his transactions now are end users, not investors. 

Looking ahead

So what’s in store for the rest of 2025? Ogmundson predicts that in the short-term, sales will continue to be weak in Toronto and Vancouver due to economic uncertainty and a growing inventory, but there could still be a rebound eventually, given an ongoing housing shortage. 

Parpara thinks prices in Vancouver will continue to fall, but there will be a more balanced market in 2026/27 as interest rates come down, while Armstrong agrees that prices will continue to lower in Toronto and it won’t be until 2027 that we see a real change. That’s when there will begin to be constraints on inventory due to a slowdown in new construction.

“I don’t think we’ve hit bottom,” Armstrong said.

Eric Stober | Jun 27, 2025

source: realestatemagazine.ca

link: https://realestatemagazine.ca/one-country-two-markets-condo-fortunes-drift-further-apart-in-vancouver-and-toronto/

Over the course of the second quarter of 2025 — the months of April, May, and June — Vancouver City Council approved a combined total of 3,714 new homes across 18 high-rise towers, marking a step forward in the city’s efforts to address its housing affordability and supply crisis over the long term.

Altogether, the rezoning applications were approved in public hearings held throughout this period, including a mix of 3,089 market rental units and 591 below-market rental units offered at more affordable rates.

In addition, two projects with strata market ownership condominium homes were also approved, contributing another 234 condominium units.

All of these projects are transit-oriented developments within walking distance of existing or future SkyTrain stations, and the vast majority of the projects were located within the City’s Broadway Plan area. Many of these projects incorporated mixed uses, including varying degrees of retail/restaurant uses in the lower levels, and three childcare facilities with a combined capacity for up to 123 kids.

Two of these approved rezoning applications were multi-tower projects, including the highly contested redevelopment of the Safeway grocery store next to SkyTrain’s Commercial-Broadway Station, which will generate 1,044 secured purpose-built market rental homes.

The net gain in housing from all of these rezonings amounts to 3,698 new homes, accounting for the replacement of demolished homes.

In the case of the redevelopments of the Safeway at Commercial-Broadway Station and La Maison de la Francophonie, there is no loss of housing as these sites do not have any existing residential uses. If both of these projects are taken out of the equation, the net gain in residential uses drops to 2,529 units.

The developments span a range of heights and densities, with towers ranging from 17 to 44 storeys. Collectively, the 18 towers add up to a total of 464 floors, averaging about 26 storeys per tower. The median is 21 storeys.

While these rezonings have now been approved, each project must still undergo the development permit and building permit application processes. Approval is just one step — actual construction is another; whether these projects move forward remains uncertain, given escalating construction costs, high interest rates driving up financing expenses, and softened market demand. Even if a project proceeds to construction, its completion — and any meaningful impact on housing supply and affordability — remains years away.

Kenneth Chan| Jun 26 2025,

source: dailyhive.com

link: https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-new-housing-tower-approvals-q2-2025

High inventory, stagnant prices, and tariff jitters stall momentum in once-hot markets.

British Columbia’s housing market continues to feel the effects of global economic turbulence, as both home sales and prices fell in May.

Last month’s numbers reflect a broader five-month slump, with high-priced regions taking the biggest hit, according to the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA).

“We have the highest level of inventory of both newly completed homes and existing homes in about 10 years,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson.

The average home price in the province dropped by 4.2% year over year to $959,058, down from $1,001,341 in May 2024, according to the report. Meanwhile, total sales activity declined 13.5% over the same period.

“Sellers just aren’t really budging,” Ogmundson added. “If you look at condo prices in Vancouver versus Toronto, they’re down 20% from peak in Toronto, they are down like 5% from peak in Vancouver.”

Realtor Steve Saretsky echoed concerns about buyer reluctance, describing the current environment as a “sort of feedback loop.”

“Everyone is marked with uncertainty,” he said. “Worried with the tariff stuff, worried about the prospects of the labour market, are they going to be able to hold down a job.”

He added that buyer hesitation has allowed inventory to accumulate, which in turn is putting downward pressure on prices. But some sellers remain anchored to outdated pricing expectations.

“Everybody always feels like their house is worth more than it is,” Saretsky said. “People are always mentally anchored to the last price that sold in the building or the neighbourhood.”

Still, both Saretsky and Ogmundson acknowledged recent signs of a modest uptick in market activity, which Ogmundson attributed to a temporary easing of trade-related tension.

“There are some signs that perhaps the worst is behind us,” Ogmundson said. “The quieter it is on the tariff front, the more confidence buyers are going to have.”

He noted that before the onset of the US-Canada trade dispute, British Columbia had been bracing for a strong year. Ogmundson believes that if economic fears ease, some of that pent-up demand could start to make itself felt in the back half of 2025.

By Candyd Mendoza 17 Jun. 2025

source: cmpmag.com

link: https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/home-sellers-arent-budging-in-tariff-weary-bc-housing-market/539346?

Spring market brings abundance of opportunity for buyers

The slowdown in home sales registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver* that began early this year continued in April, with sales down nearly 24 per cent year-over-year.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,163 in April 2025, a 23.6 per cent decrease from the 2,831 sales recorded in April 2024. This was 28.2 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,014).

“From a historical perspective, the slower sales we’re now seeing stand out as unusual, particularly against a backdrop of significantly improved borrowing conditions, which typically helps to boost sales. What’s also unusual is starting the year with Canada’s largest trading partner threatening to tilt our economy into recession via trade policy, while at the same time having Canadians head to the polls to elect a new federal government. These issues have been hard to ignore, and the April home sales figures suggest some buyers have continued to patiently wait out the storm.” said Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics

The following data is a comparison between April 2025 and April 2024 numbers, and is current as of May of 2025.

Which market are you interested in? Let me know and I’ll send that report to you.

The key details about the First-Time Home Buyers' GST rebate and its scope, and how the industry is reacting.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government followed through on one of their most anticipated election promises: the First-Time Home Buyers' (FTBH) GST rebate for new home purchases under $1 million, a move that they say will save eligible purchasers up to $50,000.

Now, first-time buyers of new homes will pay zero GST on a new home (when combined with the existing GST/HST New Housing Rebate), and there will also be reduced GST on homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. The release explains that, "under the linear phase-out, a home valued at $1.25 million would be eligible for a 50% GST rebate (a rebate of up to $25,000)."

The policy was first proposed by Carney on the campaign trail in late-March, and echoed Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's pledge to axe the GST for all buyers of new homes up to $1 million (later increased to up to $1.3 million), but the newly-released details give a little more insight into who stands to tap into the benefit — and who doesn't. Here's what you need to know:

Eligibility

The FTHB GST rebate would apply to first-time homebuyers who are at least 18 years of age, are a Canadian citizen or permanent resident, and have not lived in a home that they or their spouse or common-law partner owned in the calendar year or in the four preceding calendar years, both inside and outside of Canada.Teagan Sliz May 28, 2025

When it comes to the types of housing included in the rebate, buyers who purchase a new home from a builder, build or hire a builder to build a home on land they own or lease, or purchase shares of a co-operative housing corporation are all eligible for the tax rebate.

How The Rebate Applies To New Home Types

New homes purchased from a builder:

When buying a new home, at least one of the purchasers of the home would need to be a “first-time home buyer” (by the government's definition) and the home would have to serve as their primary residence. The home also can't have been occupied by a previous owner.

The rebate would be available if the Agreement of Purchase and Sale for the home is finalized on or after May 27, 2025, and before 2031. Plus, construction of the home must begin before 2031 and be substantially completed before 2036.

Owner-built homes:

For someone building their own first home or hiring a builder, the FTHB GST rebate would recover up to $50,000 of the GST or the federal part of the HST paid to build the home.

Similar to a new home purchased from a builder, those accessing the rebate to build their own home need to have never owned a home before, the home needs to be their primary residence, and they have to be the first ones to occupy the home.

The rebate will also only be available if construction starts on or after May 27, 2025, and before 2031, with construction wrapping up before 2036.

Shares Of A Cooperative Housing Corporation:

When purchasing a new co-op housing unit, first-time homebuyers can claim the rebate in respect of the purchase of the unit where the co-op paid GST or the federal part of the HST in respect of new housing.

As with the other scenarios, the purchaser must be acquiring the unit as their primary residence, be the first to live there, and have never owned a home before — but for this option, the FTHB GST rebate would not be available if the co-op housing is eligible for the existing 100% GST rebate for purpose-built rental housing.

For a co-op unit purchase, the same eligibility dates as the new homes purchased by a builder apply: The rebate would be available if the Agreement of Purchase and Sale is finalized on or after May 27, 2025, and before 2031. Plus, construction of the home must begin before 2031 and be substantially completed before 2036.

Limitations

There are certain stipulations that limit the availability of the rebate, including that the rebate can't be claimed more than once in an individual's lifetime and it can't be claimed if their spouse or common-law partner previously claimed the FTHB GST rebate.

Additionally, in the case of an assignment sale (the sale of a property before construction completes), if a first-time home buyer assumes the rights and obligations of another person that is a purchaser of a new home under an Agreement of Purchase and Sale with a builder, the FTHB rebate would not be available if that original agreement of purchase and sale was entered into before May 27, 2025.

The final limitation is if an Agreement of Purchase and Sale for a new home is later cancelled and a new sales agreement is entered into after May 27, 2025, the FTHB GST Rebate may be disallowed.

Industry Response

The tax policy is intended to spur housing development by making purchasing a home more attainable to young Canadians and first-time buyers, and while any improvement in affordability is welcomed, many in the development community say the policy doesn't go far enough.

In a statement from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), Senior Vice President of Communications, Research, and Stakeholder Relations, Justin Sherwood, argues for an expansion of eligibility.

"Unfortunately, this limitation to first-time buyers only will have a very small impact, as very few new home buyers are first-time buyers. It will not substantially help address affordability, nor will it help significantly stimulate sales and construction," he said. “The government has reaped billions in additional tax revenue on new homes by not indexing GST price rebate thresholds since 1991 and instead has created a new mechanism that will apply to very few purchasers. In order to have maximum impact and address the effects of GST/HST on eroding home affordability, the Federal government must broaden the scope of the GST (HST) measures to all new home purchases.”

Others sector stakeholders, like the Canadian Home Builders' Association (CHBA), agree that the policy's scope should be broadened.

“While the quick action to move on the FTHB GST rebate is welcome as it will go a long way to enable first-time home buyers to access homeownership, the housing supply gap is still widening,” said CHBA CEO Kevin Lee in a press release. “We still urge the federal government to extend this measure to all home buyers, and reconsider the eligibility to make it based on closing date, not date of purchase and sale.”

by Teagan Sliz on May 28, 2025

source: storeys.com

link: https://storeys.com/first-time-homebuyers-gst-rebate/

Prime Minister Mark Carney recently announced his new cabinet, and it contains some people with important policies, plans and ideas – especially for housing – including a member from BC. Back on the campaign trail, Carney set out a series of housing policies he had planned for the Federal Liberal Party to implement if elected. Now that they are in power, let’s take another look at these policies and how Carney’s pick for housing minister stacks up against them.

Former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, now MP for Vancouver Fraserview-South Burnaby, has been named as the new Federal Minister of Housing. During his time as Mayor, Robertson had two major housing-related goals: ending street homelessness and addressing affordability. During his tenure, however, detached home prices increased to a median value of over $1 million, and street homelessness is still present today.

According to Robertson, this was because he received insufficient support from the Federal and Provincial governments back in 2008. This time, “What’s different now is that we’ve got a prime minister and a new government here in Ottawa who are saying we need to double the rate of construction, we need to work across all levels of government, we need to engage the private sector to do this,” he says. “We didn't have any of that going back to 2008.” Robertson has also said that the best way to tackle the housing crisis is to increase supply.

As for engaging the private sector and increasing the rate of construction, Robertson could be referring to Carney’s plan to create a Federal entity to build homes, called Build Canada Homes (BCH). The goal is to build affordable homes, including on public land, stimulate the new homes industry and provide financing to home builders of affordable housing.

Because Robertson is also Minister responsible for Pacific Economic Development Canada, he may have some influence on how the Prime Minister handles economic development tied to housing in BC as well.

On the other hand, Robertson’s detractors call out his record as Vancouver Mayor. “He increased housing taxes in Vancouver by 141%, and the result was that housing costs went up by 149%,” says Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. “Now Mr. Carney puts this gentleman in charge of housing. If this is the new blood that Mr. Carney is bringing into the cabinet, then sadly for Canadians, nothing is going to change.”

King Charles III’s Throne Speech backs up some of the announced plans.

During his 27 May 2025 Throne Speech, King Charles III outlined the actions and policies the Canadian Government plans to take during the upcoming 45 Parliament. Part of the speech contained mentions of the Government’s plans for housing. Let’s take a closer look at the mentions and how they align with what the Federal Liberal Party has set forth so far.

King Charles III mentioned the GST cut on new homes less than $1 million for first-time buyers, which was the same policy Prime Minister Carney announced back during his time on the campaign trail. King Charles III also said that the Government will “lower the GST on homes between $1 million and $1.5 million,” which expands on this slightly. The speech did not contain an exact number tied to how much the tax will be lowered on new homes between $1 million and $1.5 million.

The throne speech also addressed plans to speed up home construction, mirroring the policies Carney announced during his campaign. “The Government will introduce measures to deliver affordable homes by creating Build Canada Homes,” King Charles III said. He also remarked that the Government will invest in prefabricated and modular housing, another portion of the Liberal Party’s housing plans.

King Charles III echoed the affordable housing plans the Liberal Party has outlined so far, too, stating that the Government “will provide significant financing to affordable home builders. The Government will make the housing market work better, including by cutting municipal development charges in half for all multi-unit housing. The Government will drive supply up to bring housing costs down.”

It remains to be seen what the actual numbers and budgets are behind the Federal Liberal Party’s ideas and plans. The party aims to have a budget tabled by this fall with more details.

by Zak Khan Date: May 27, 2025

source: rew.ca

link: https://www.rew.ca/guide/articles/what-carney-new-cabinet-pick-for-housing-means-for-real-estate