A tale of two condo markets continues to unfold in Toronto and Vancouver, with the former seeing steeper price declines.

Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist with the BC Real Estate Association, points to CREA data that shows “wild divergence” between Toronto and Vancouver’s apartment prices since a convergence in 2022, with Toronto’s prices down about 20 per cent, while Vancouver’s are just slightly off from the peak.

“There must be a much bigger amount of excess supply in Toronto than Vancouver,” he told Real Estate Magazine. “It’s much worse in Toronto.”

What’s happening in Vancouver 

Ogmundson noted that although Vancouver has seen a lot of construction over the past five years, many of those units are still in progress or intended as rentals, so supply hasn’t flooded the market all at once. 

He expects some downward pressure on Vancouver prices soon as inventory accumulates and demand softens, though likely not to the same extent as in Toronto.  

Toronto’s sudden downturn

“Vancouver is very much lagging Toronto,” said realtor Jarrod Armstrong with Right At Home Realty, noting that Toronto hit a peak in 2022 and the entire industry has been “flipped upside down” since then.

Armstrong said Toronto, where he is based, has been hit by a volley of changes in the last three years, like higher interest rates, a ban on foreign buyers, changes to Airbnb rules, and vacant home taxes, which have all sent investors fleeing.

“A lot has really hit the market all at once,” he said. “It’s really a perfect storm hitting the Toronto condo market.”

Armstrong said Toronto overbuilt small 350- to 450-square-feet condos mainly geared toward investors, but that are not so attractive to other buyers. That has resulted in a surplus of inventory and weak demand, which has sent prices falling. 

“(Small condos) have literally lost a quarter of their value,” he said. “They’re really just unsellable.”

Armstrong said that in a given month, there might be 3,000 condos for sale but only 300 sales. The city is now seeing a fall in preconstruction sales and projects abandoned left and right, according to Armstrong. 

To add insult to injury, tariffs from the U.S. have injected uncertainty into the economy that has “ruined” the spring condo market, he said. 

Vancouver: Smaller scale, similar issues

In Vancouver, realtor Ron Parpara with eXp Realty told REM that he thinks the main reason prices have fared better there than in Toronto is that it is a smaller city. That means there’s less space to build and less stock to outweigh demand. 

That said, he noted that the city is still feeling a market slowdown and there has been some dip in prices.

“We’re in a similar situation, just maybe in a little bit of a smaller scale with Toronto,” he said. “Sales are not keeping up with the supply.”

Parpara said Vancouver has the highest inventory in the last 11 years and there’s more coming online, and they just had the slowest May in the last 20 years. Vancouver has taken similar steps against investors as Toronto, including a vacant home tax and an Airbnb tax, according to Parpara. 

As a result, he said about 90 per cent of his transactions now are end users, not investors. 

Looking ahead

So what’s in store for the rest of 2025? Ogmundson predicts that in the short-term, sales will continue to be weak in Toronto and Vancouver due to economic uncertainty and a growing inventory, but there could still be a rebound eventually, given an ongoing housing shortage. 

Parpara thinks prices in Vancouver will continue to fall, but there will be a more balanced market in 2026/27 as interest rates come down, while Armstrong agrees that prices will continue to lower in Toronto and it won’t be until 2027 that we see a real change. That’s when there will begin to be constraints on inventory due to a slowdown in new construction.

“I don’t think we’ve hit bottom,” Armstrong said.

Eric Stober | Jun 27, 2025

source: realestatemagazine.ca

link: https://realestatemagazine.ca/one-country-two-markets-condo-fortunes-drift-further-apart-in-vancouver-and-toronto/

Over the course of the second quarter of 2025 — the months of April, May, and June — Vancouver City Council approved a combined total of 3,714 new homes across 18 high-rise towers, marking a step forward in the city’s efforts to address its housing affordability and supply crisis over the long term.

Altogether, the rezoning applications were approved in public hearings held throughout this period, including a mix of 3,089 market rental units and 591 below-market rental units offered at more affordable rates.

In addition, two projects with strata market ownership condominium homes were also approved, contributing another 234 condominium units.

All of these projects are transit-oriented developments within walking distance of existing or future SkyTrain stations, and the vast majority of the projects were located within the City’s Broadway Plan area. Many of these projects incorporated mixed uses, including varying degrees of retail/restaurant uses in the lower levels, and three childcare facilities with a combined capacity for up to 123 kids.

Two of these approved rezoning applications were multi-tower projects, including the highly contested redevelopment of the Safeway grocery store next to SkyTrain’s Commercial-Broadway Station, which will generate 1,044 secured purpose-built market rental homes.

The net gain in housing from all of these rezonings amounts to 3,698 new homes, accounting for the replacement of demolished homes.

In the case of the redevelopments of the Safeway at Commercial-Broadway Station and La Maison de la Francophonie, there is no loss of housing as these sites do not have any existing residential uses. If both of these projects are taken out of the equation, the net gain in residential uses drops to 2,529 units.

The developments span a range of heights and densities, with towers ranging from 17 to 44 storeys. Collectively, the 18 towers add up to a total of 464 floors, averaging about 26 storeys per tower. The median is 21 storeys.

While these rezonings have now been approved, each project must still undergo the development permit and building permit application processes. Approval is just one step — actual construction is another; whether these projects move forward remains uncertain, given escalating construction costs, high interest rates driving up financing expenses, and softened market demand. Even if a project proceeds to construction, its completion — and any meaningful impact on housing supply and affordability — remains years away.

Kenneth Chan| Jun 26 2025,

source: dailyhive.com

link: https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-new-housing-tower-approvals-q2-2025

High inventory, stagnant prices, and tariff jitters stall momentum in once-hot markets.

British Columbia’s housing market continues to feel the effects of global economic turbulence, as both home sales and prices fell in May.

Last month’s numbers reflect a broader five-month slump, with high-priced regions taking the biggest hit, according to the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA).

“We have the highest level of inventory of both newly completed homes and existing homes in about 10 years,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson.

The average home price in the province dropped by 4.2% year over year to $959,058, down from $1,001,341 in May 2024, according to the report. Meanwhile, total sales activity declined 13.5% over the same period.

“Sellers just aren’t really budging,” Ogmundson added. “If you look at condo prices in Vancouver versus Toronto, they’re down 20% from peak in Toronto, they are down like 5% from peak in Vancouver.”

Realtor Steve Saretsky echoed concerns about buyer reluctance, describing the current environment as a “sort of feedback loop.”

“Everyone is marked with uncertainty,” he said. “Worried with the tariff stuff, worried about the prospects of the labour market, are they going to be able to hold down a job.”

He added that buyer hesitation has allowed inventory to accumulate, which in turn is putting downward pressure on prices. But some sellers remain anchored to outdated pricing expectations.

“Everybody always feels like their house is worth more than it is,” Saretsky said. “People are always mentally anchored to the last price that sold in the building or the neighbourhood.”

Still, both Saretsky and Ogmundson acknowledged recent signs of a modest uptick in market activity, which Ogmundson attributed to a temporary easing of trade-related tension.

“There are some signs that perhaps the worst is behind us,” Ogmundson said. “The quieter it is on the tariff front, the more confidence buyers are going to have.”

He noted that before the onset of the US-Canada trade dispute, British Columbia had been bracing for a strong year. Ogmundson believes that if economic fears ease, some of that pent-up demand could start to make itself felt in the back half of 2025.

By Candyd Mendoza 17 Jun. 2025

source: cmpmag.com

link: https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/home-sellers-arent-budging-in-tariff-weary-bc-housing-market/539346?

Spring market brings abundance of opportunity for buyers

The slowdown in home sales registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver* that began early this year continued in April, with sales down nearly 24 per cent year-over-year.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,163 in April 2025, a 23.6 per cent decrease from the 2,831 sales recorded in April 2024. This was 28.2 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,014).

“From a historical perspective, the slower sales we’re now seeing stand out as unusual, particularly against a backdrop of significantly improved borrowing conditions, which typically helps to boost sales. What’s also unusual is starting the year with Canada’s largest trading partner threatening to tilt our economy into recession via trade policy, while at the same time having Canadians head to the polls to elect a new federal government. These issues have been hard to ignore, and the April home sales figures suggest some buyers have continued to patiently wait out the storm.” said Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics

The following data is a comparison between April 2025 and April 2024 numbers, and is current as of May of 2025.

Which market are you interested in? Let me know and I’ll send that report to you.

The key details about the First-Time Home Buyers' GST rebate and its scope, and how the industry is reacting.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government followed through on one of their most anticipated election promises: the First-Time Home Buyers' (FTBH) GST rebate for new home purchases under $1 million, a move that they say will save eligible purchasers up to $50,000.

Now, first-time buyers of new homes will pay zero GST on a new home (when combined with the existing GST/HST New Housing Rebate), and there will also be reduced GST on homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. The release explains that, "under the linear phase-out, a home valued at $1.25 million would be eligible for a 50% GST rebate (a rebate of up to $25,000)."

The policy was first proposed by Carney on the campaign trail in late-March, and echoed Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's pledge to axe the GST for all buyers of new homes up to $1 million (later increased to up to $1.3 million), but the newly-released details give a little more insight into who stands to tap into the benefit — and who doesn't. Here's what you need to know:

Eligibility

The FTHB GST rebate would apply to first-time homebuyers who are at least 18 years of age, are a Canadian citizen or permanent resident, and have not lived in a home that they or their spouse or common-law partner owned in the calendar year or in the four preceding calendar years, both inside and outside of Canada.Teagan Sliz May 28, 2025

When it comes to the types of housing included in the rebate, buyers who purchase a new home from a builder, build or hire a builder to build a home on land they own or lease, or purchase shares of a co-operative housing corporation are all eligible for the tax rebate.

How The Rebate Applies To New Home Types

New homes purchased from a builder:

When buying a new home, at least one of the purchasers of the home would need to be a “first-time home buyer” (by the government's definition) and the home would have to serve as their primary residence. The home also can't have been occupied by a previous owner.

The rebate would be available if the Agreement of Purchase and Sale for the home is finalized on or after May 27, 2025, and before 2031. Plus, construction of the home must begin before 2031 and be substantially completed before 2036.

Owner-built homes:

For someone building their own first home or hiring a builder, the FTHB GST rebate would recover up to $50,000 of the GST or the federal part of the HST paid to build the home.

Similar to a new home purchased from a builder, those accessing the rebate to build their own home need to have never owned a home before, the home needs to be their primary residence, and they have to be the first ones to occupy the home.

The rebate will also only be available if construction starts on or after May 27, 2025, and before 2031, with construction wrapping up before 2036.

Shares Of A Cooperative Housing Corporation:

When purchasing a new co-op housing unit, first-time homebuyers can claim the rebate in respect of the purchase of the unit where the co-op paid GST or the federal part of the HST in respect of new housing.

As with the other scenarios, the purchaser must be acquiring the unit as their primary residence, be the first to live there, and have never owned a home before — but for this option, the FTHB GST rebate would not be available if the co-op housing is eligible for the existing 100% GST rebate for purpose-built rental housing.

For a co-op unit purchase, the same eligibility dates as the new homes purchased by a builder apply: The rebate would be available if the Agreement of Purchase and Sale is finalized on or after May 27, 2025, and before 2031. Plus, construction of the home must begin before 2031 and be substantially completed before 2036.

Limitations

There are certain stipulations that limit the availability of the rebate, including that the rebate can't be claimed more than once in an individual's lifetime and it can't be claimed if their spouse or common-law partner previously claimed the FTHB GST rebate.

Additionally, in the case of an assignment sale (the sale of a property before construction completes), if a first-time home buyer assumes the rights and obligations of another person that is a purchaser of a new home under an Agreement of Purchase and Sale with a builder, the FTHB rebate would not be available if that original agreement of purchase and sale was entered into before May 27, 2025.

The final limitation is if an Agreement of Purchase and Sale for a new home is later cancelled and a new sales agreement is entered into after May 27, 2025, the FTHB GST Rebate may be disallowed.

Industry Response

The tax policy is intended to spur housing development by making purchasing a home more attainable to young Canadians and first-time buyers, and while any improvement in affordability is welcomed, many in the development community say the policy doesn't go far enough.

In a statement from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), Senior Vice President of Communications, Research, and Stakeholder Relations, Justin Sherwood, argues for an expansion of eligibility.

"Unfortunately, this limitation to first-time buyers only will have a very small impact, as very few new home buyers are first-time buyers. It will not substantially help address affordability, nor will it help significantly stimulate sales and construction," he said. “The government has reaped billions in additional tax revenue on new homes by not indexing GST price rebate thresholds since 1991 and instead has created a new mechanism that will apply to very few purchasers. In order to have maximum impact and address the effects of GST/HST on eroding home affordability, the Federal government must broaden the scope of the GST (HST) measures to all new home purchases.”

Others sector stakeholders, like the Canadian Home Builders' Association (CHBA), agree that the policy's scope should be broadened.

“While the quick action to move on the FTHB GST rebate is welcome as it will go a long way to enable first-time home buyers to access homeownership, the housing supply gap is still widening,” said CHBA CEO Kevin Lee in a press release. “We still urge the federal government to extend this measure to all home buyers, and reconsider the eligibility to make it based on closing date, not date of purchase and sale.”

by Teagan Sliz on May 28, 2025

source: storeys.com

link: https://storeys.com/first-time-homebuyers-gst-rebate/

Prime Minister Mark Carney recently announced his new cabinet, and it contains some people with important policies, plans and ideas – especially for housing – including a member from BC. Back on the campaign trail, Carney set out a series of housing policies he had planned for the Federal Liberal Party to implement if elected. Now that they are in power, let’s take another look at these policies and how Carney’s pick for housing minister stacks up against them.

Former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, now MP for Vancouver Fraserview-South Burnaby, has been named as the new Federal Minister of Housing. During his time as Mayor, Robertson had two major housing-related goals: ending street homelessness and addressing affordability. During his tenure, however, detached home prices increased to a median value of over $1 million, and street homelessness is still present today.

According to Robertson, this was because he received insufficient support from the Federal and Provincial governments back in 2008. This time, “What’s different now is that we’ve got a prime minister and a new government here in Ottawa who are saying we need to double the rate of construction, we need to work across all levels of government, we need to engage the private sector to do this,” he says. “We didn't have any of that going back to 2008.” Robertson has also said that the best way to tackle the housing crisis is to increase supply.

As for engaging the private sector and increasing the rate of construction, Robertson could be referring to Carney’s plan to create a Federal entity to build homes, called Build Canada Homes (BCH). The goal is to build affordable homes, including on public land, stimulate the new homes industry and provide financing to home builders of affordable housing.

Because Robertson is also Minister responsible for Pacific Economic Development Canada, he may have some influence on how the Prime Minister handles economic development tied to housing in BC as well.

On the other hand, Robertson’s detractors call out his record as Vancouver Mayor. “He increased housing taxes in Vancouver by 141%, and the result was that housing costs went up by 149%,” says Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. “Now Mr. Carney puts this gentleman in charge of housing. If this is the new blood that Mr. Carney is bringing into the cabinet, then sadly for Canadians, nothing is going to change.”

King Charles III’s Throne Speech backs up some of the announced plans.

During his 27 May 2025 Throne Speech, King Charles III outlined the actions and policies the Canadian Government plans to take during the upcoming 45 Parliament. Part of the speech contained mentions of the Government’s plans for housing. Let’s take a closer look at the mentions and how they align with what the Federal Liberal Party has set forth so far.

King Charles III mentioned the GST cut on new homes less than $1 million for first-time buyers, which was the same policy Prime Minister Carney announced back during his time on the campaign trail. King Charles III also said that the Government will “lower the GST on homes between $1 million and $1.5 million,” which expands on this slightly. The speech did not contain an exact number tied to how much the tax will be lowered on new homes between $1 million and $1.5 million.

The throne speech also addressed plans to speed up home construction, mirroring the policies Carney announced during his campaign. “The Government will introduce measures to deliver affordable homes by creating Build Canada Homes,” King Charles III said. He also remarked that the Government will invest in prefabricated and modular housing, another portion of the Liberal Party’s housing plans.

King Charles III echoed the affordable housing plans the Liberal Party has outlined so far, too, stating that the Government “will provide significant financing to affordable home builders. The Government will make the housing market work better, including by cutting municipal development charges in half for all multi-unit housing. The Government will drive supply up to bring housing costs down.”

It remains to be seen what the actual numbers and budgets are behind the Federal Liberal Party’s ideas and plans. The party aims to have a budget tabled by this fall with more details.

by Zak Khan Date: May 27, 2025

source: rew.ca

link: https://www.rew.ca/guide/articles/what-carney-new-cabinet-pick-for-housing-means-for-real-estate

Editor’s note: back in February, Erin Best set out her predictions on what a tariff battle might mean for BC real estate. Now that this new economic reality is settling in, she’s returned to the table and sifted through recent events to cover how everything is stacking up.

If there’s one thing that can send shockwaves through an already turbulent housing market, it’s a full-blown tariff war. And with recent US trade policies throwing yet another wrench into Canada’s economic machinery, BC’s real estate market is staring down a scenario that’s equal parts frustrating, unnecessary and entirely avoidable.

According to Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist of the BCREA, tariffs are nothing short of “economic self-sabotage.” He explains:

"Ultimately, the story of tariffs is one of economic self-sabotage with a litany of unintended consequences – rising costs, diminished competitiveness and weakened ties with critical trading partners. For Canada and the United States, erstwhile allies in a deeply integrated North American economy, such measures are a lose-lose proposition. British Columbia, with its relatively diversified trade portfolio, may weather the storm better than other provinces more reliant on US markets."

If that all sounds familiar, it's because we've been here before. According to Brendon:

"The scars left on the province's forestry sector by earlier trade skirmishes serve as a sobering reminder that even partial insulation offers limited reprieve. For the BC housing market, the most likely scenario involves a temporary decline in housing activity followed by a strong recovery as the Bank of Canada responds to a severely injured Canadian economy and mortgage rates plummet."

The Prediction: Tariffs equal higher costs, which equals housing headaches.

Housing affordability is already on life support and tariffs could deliver the next gut punch. Why? Because tariffs on imported building materials (think lumber, steel and aluminum) push up construction costs, squeezing supply just when we need it most. That means:

• New housing projects delayed or scrapped due to higher material costs.

• Developers passing costs onto buyers – because let’s be real, they’re not eating the difference.

• Renovations and secondary suite construction slowing down, limiting much-needed rental supply.

In short, tariffs don't just impact trade – they bloat costs at every level of the housing supply chain.

The Update: Here’s what’s happening in 2025 so far.

In March 2025, the US added a 25% tariff (extra tax) on all steel and aluminum coming from Canada. In response, Canada is fighting back by putting its own 25% tariffs on US steel, aluminum and other goods – adding up to nearly $30 billion in tariffs.

These extra charges also apply to other US products Canada buys, like tools, computers, sports gear and construction materials. Canada says this is a fair, “dollar-for-dollar” response, and more tariffs may be added if the US doesn't change its decision

But let’s break this down further – what does this mean for BC’s already strained new housing market? Developers facing higher costs may re-think project timelines or even cancel builds outright, leading to fewer new homes hitting the market. Buyers looking for pre-sale units may find fewer options available, or worse, projects put on hold indefinitely as builders wait for material costs to stabilize.

The Update: A new reality for new builds?

MLA Canada reports that, “last April saw 17 project launches, marking this year’s total [of seven launches] a decrease of 70% in comparison.”

Even more recently, Boffo Developments terminated pre-sale contracts and returned deposits for a condo development it was constructing. They say that high costs and low demand, plus economic uncertainty, have significantly suppressed pre-sale volume. Ryan Berlin, Chief Intelligence Officer at Rennie Marketing, anticipates that the market may not end up returning or normal for at least two years. There are currently 2,500 unsold condo units in Greater Vancouver, and many expect that number to rise.

Market uncertainty and hesitant buyers also mean that other developers are trying to attract interest using some unique approaches: rent-to-own agreements, one-time decorating budgets or upgrade offers and even free beer. If you’re a buyer in a secure position, these special offers and enticements make it a great time to shop around.“ ”

*Tariffs are a zero-sum game and history proves they do more economic damage than good. For BC real estate, the only certainty is more volatility – a turbulent stretch ahead before the market finds its footing again.” Erin Best
Director of Real Estate & Industry Engagement

The Update: Lots of listings, but buyers are still hesitant.

And what’s actually happening in the resale market? Despite lower interest rates and a surge in inventory, many buyers in Greater Vancouver are still sitting on the sidelines. According to GVR’s April stats, resale home sales are down 23.6% year-over-year and nearly 30% below the ten-year seasonal average, while active listings are up a staggering 29.7% – the highest inventory level we’ve seen since 2014.

The sales-to-active listings ratio is sitting at 13.8%, pointing to a balanced-to-buyer’s market. Prices have only edged down across the board, with detached homes down 0.7%, townhomes down 2.9% and condos down 2.0% year-over-year, not making the big drop many people were hoping to see.

The new(er) homes resale market is seeing similar stats. “In April 2025, total sales reached 255 homes, a nearly 41% decline from the previous month and a 35% drop from April 2024, largely due to external factors affecting buyer confidence,” says Dexter Realty’s Manraj Dosanjh.

While headlines focus on economic uncertainty and global trade tensions, what can this mean? For serious buyers, this is a rare window of opportunity: more listings to choose from, less competition at the offer table and likely motivated sellers who are willing to negotiate. Yes, macroeconomic concerns like trade tensions and consumer uncertainty are real – but if you're ready to buy, the conditions are quietly tipping in your favour. It's a market where preparation and confidence can lead to great value.

The Prediction: The Bank of Canada’s silver lining – rate cuts incoming?

Here’s where it gets interesting. If the Canadian economy stumbles hard enough, the Bank of Canada could slash interest rates to counteract the damage. And while that’s a nightmare scenario for economic growth, it’s a lifeline for BC homebuyers desperate for relief from sky-high mortgage rates. Lower borrowing costs could fuel a rapid market rebound, flipping today’s slowdown into tomorrow’s buying frenzy.

A cut in interest rates would immediately lower mortgage costs, allowing more buyers to enter the market. For those who’ve been sitting on the sidelines, lower monthly payments could mean the difference between renting and finally stepping onto the property ladder. Investors, too, would likely take advantage of cheaper financing, leading to higher demand and an upward push on home prices. While this would be welcome news for sellers, it could also mean a shorter window of affordability before prices start climbing again. The question is: will buyers act fast enough to take advantage of it?

The Update: What the Bank of Canada has done in 2025.

The Bank of Canada did indeed cut rates after tariffs took hold. Recent actions taken by the BoC include:

• January 29, 2025: The BoC reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 3.00%.

• March 12, 2025: Another 25 basis point cut was made, lowering the rate to 2.75%.

• April 16, 2025: The BoC announces a rate hold at 2.75%, where it remains as of May 2025.

Looking ahead? Market analysts anticipate that the BoC may resume rate cuts in the coming months, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction at the next meeting on June 4, 2025. And there could potentially be another cut later in the year, depending on economic developments.

The Update: What should BC homebuyers and investors expect now?

We thought there would be some short-term uncertainty, like a slower housing market as consumer confidence wavered. And it was slower. We thought there would be increased new construction costs. That seems to be true and pre-sales have slumped in the first quarter. We thought there would be rate cuts, and there were.

But what should BC homebuyers and investors expect now?

The closest thing to a prediction of what to expect comes once again from BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson, who says, "As the fog of trade uncertainty hopefully begins to lift, the BC housing market is at a bit of a turning point. I'm hopeful that political dialogue will yield a resolution, reinvigorating the market in a collective sigh of relief – though the risk remains that tariffs could dampen the recovery, leaving monetary policy as the primary lever to the market regaining traction."

Prices in the resale market have softened slightly and if inventory continues to pile on the market, the resale market could see further shifts downward in pricing. Agents need to get strategic with pricing conversations and marketing strategies with sellers and be prepared to set expectations accordingly to move inventory across the market.

In my experience? In a shifting market, one of the hardest things for sellers to do is adjust their expectations. Investors who seek to make a quick buck by flipping? This won’t be the market for them, but a strategic long-term investor will see opportunity in the current circumstance.

The new homes space will likely continue seeing a decrease in new projects moving forward. But that won’t dramatically impact the overall housing supply over the next six months, particularly in the condo market. The supply crunch we want to pay attention to will be in the next 18 to 36 months, if construction continues to lag. That’s especially the case if population growth and immigration continue to stay high and the inventory of resale homes starts to move again.

A lose-lose situation.

Tariffs are a zero-sum game and history proves they do more economic damage than good. For BC real estate, the only certainty is more volatility – a turbulent stretch ahead before the market finds its footing again.

The question is: will policymakers course-correct before more damage is done? Or are we in for another round of economic self-sabotage? Time will tell, but that is a ticking time bomb.

by Erin Best     May 16, 2025

source: rew.ca

link: https://www.rew.ca/guide/articles/how-us-tariffs-could-shake-up-bc-real-estate

Summary of Findings

• Uncertainty related to the threat of tariffs has depressed home sales through the first quarter of 2025

• As that uncertainty subsides, the path of sales activity will depend on the prevailing tariff regime and the ultimate impact of tariffs on the economy.

• A strong monetary policy response from the Bank of Canada could counteract the negative impact of tariffs, leading to a stronger, faster housing market recovery

Introduction

The economic uncertainty engendered by the stochastic trade policy of the United States under President Donald Trump has upended what was set to be a return to normalcy in the British Columbia housing market. However, that uncertainty, while still elevated, appears to be subsiding. So, what comes next? In this Market Intelligence report, we’ll explore some potential scenarios for the BC housing market amidst a cloudier-thanusual outlook.

What is Uncertainty?

Uncertainty is not inherently measurable. It is much more a vibe or a mood than something that can be quantified. That means we are left to rely on imperfect measures to gauge people’s sentiment about the future. One such measure that has been getting a lot of attention is the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, produced by economists from Stanford University and Northwestern University. The index, which scrapes Canadian media sources for mentions of economic uncertainty, has the advantage of a long historical record, which makes its usefulness in quantitative modelling outweigh some of the concerns over its methodology. The index rose to a startling new high of 1,635 in February – almost 1,000 points higher than the previous record of 679, recorded during the heart of the pandemic in 2020.

Other approaches to measuring uncertainty tell a similar story – households and businesses are worried about the future, and those worries coincide with the unpredictability and potential consequences of the Trump administration’s tariff policy. The 12-month outlook for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) Business Barometer index also collapsed after February, reaching its lowest level on record in March.

Meanwhile, a recent Bank of Canada survey showed that a majority of Canadian workers in industries that rely on exports to the US are worried about their job security if tariffs come into effect.

The impact of all this uncertainty is quite clear. Decision making is paralyzed. Whether it’s a business looking to hire or invest, or a family thinking of buying a home, these kinds of decisions are increasingly being delayed or put off completely. As usual, the most immediate impact of uncertainty is showing up in the housing market.

How Has Uncertainty Impacted the BC Housing Market?

After a slow couple of years, home sales picked up considerably toward the end of 2024, driven by falling interest rates and pent-up demand. Sales began 2025 relatively strong but fell off in February, with further declines in March and April. Home sales are now sitting at 25 per cent below their 10-year average.

Given the fact that this fall-off in sales coincided with the beginning of the tariff madness that has since gripped the global economy, it would be easy to simply intuit that tariff uncertainty is the main driver of weak sales.

However, we pride ourselves on trying to put numbers to these questions. As such, we’ve augmented a conventional housing market model with a measure of uncertainty – the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index – from which we can derive what factors have been driving home sales in recent months.

Of note, this model shows significant underlying sales momentum, and a rate environment that has moved from weighing heavily on sales to being essentially neutral. The model also shows that uncertainty, while not usually much of a factor at all, is estimated to have lowered provincial home sales by approximately 3,000 sales over the first quarter of 2025.

The good news is that uncertainty doesn’t last forever. The initial shock from uncertainty already appears to be fading and, given the tempestuous nature of recent tariff policy, could be resolved one way or the other at any moment. When that uncertainty subsides, we should see greater clarity in the outlook and a pick-up in activity. However, that also depends on the final shape of the tariff environment.

What Comes After Uncertainty?

Since the Canadian federal election, we appear to be in a trade-tension holding pattern with at least friendlier discussions between Canada and the US. However, there is still a chance that Canada will be hit with expanded tariffs that have the potential to knock the economy into recession. Indeed, the Bank of Canada, eschewing its normal forecast, offered two scenarios for the economy under differing tariff regimes, the most negative of which assumes a year-long recession and rising inflation. While BC is more insulated from US tariffs than the rest of Canada, there will still be a significant drag on the BC economy from a trade war involving our two largest export markets.

With home sales already trending 25 per cent below the average pace of the past decade, where does the market go from here? Like the Bank of Canada, the best we can offer are scenarios

Assuming a mutually beneficial conclusion to the US-Canada tariff war, a sharp decline in uncertainty, as well as no lingering effects on the economy from the latter, there is sufficient pent-up demand in the market to drive sales significantly higher.

However, if uncertainty is replaced by the cold reality of an economy subject to newly implemented tariffs, then recovery becomes largely about the monetary policy response. Currently, messaging from the Bank of Canada is focused on convincing the public and financial markets that monetary policy is not the right tool to fight the trade war:

“Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is maintain price stability for Canadians.”
– Bank of Canada, April 16, 2025.

In that case, we may not see much in the way of further monetary stimulus or falling mortgage rates. Instead, we’d be looking at a much more sluggish recovery in provincial home sales.

That said, there is emerging literature that argues the optimal course of action for central banks dealing with tariff effects is to look past the price impacts and instead react to falling output.1 If the Bank finds that argument convincing enough to outweigh the lingering impact of its recent experience with COVID-era inflation, then we may see the Bank lower its policy rate, prompting fixed mortgage rates to fall below 3.5 per cent and thereby spurring a strong rebound in home sales

Conclusion

As the fog of trade uncertainty hopefully begins to lift, the BC housing market is at a bit of a turning point. Either political dialogue will yield a resolution, reinvigorating the market in a collective sigh of relief, or tariffs could dampen the recovery, leaving monetary policy as the primary lever to the market regaining traction.

As the year progresses, we can hopefully put this era of unprecedented uncertainty behind us, affording households the confidence necessary to make informed decisions with a clearer path ahead.

source: BCREA  - May 15, 2025 |

link: https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025-05-15-market-intelligence.pdf

“Even with the Canadian election resolved, the real estate market continues to be uncertain and exhibit weak metrics. Compared to historical norms, we are seeing about half as many new projects come online every month. Furthermore, the approximately 1,500 total presales in Q1 signal a deflated market that is well below typical unit absorption. Our outlook for 2025 remains centered around a soft sales environment, high volume of project completions, and steep purchase incentives to drive end-user sales.” - Garde MacDonald, Director of Advisory

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PRESALE PAUSED FOR POLITICS

The spring market continued at a subdued pace and fell short of the typical activity expected during this time of year. In April, seven projects launched across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, bringing nearly 700 units to market. This aligns with the consistent but modest pace of launch volume throughout 2025, averaging six to eight projects per month. However, it marks the lowest launch volume for the month of April since 2020. Historically, April tends to deliver double-digit launches. Last April saw 17 project launches, marking this year’s total a decrease of 70% in comparison.

With the provincial election on the horizon at the end of April, both buyers and developers approached the month with caution, holding off on major decisions while awaiting clarity on future leadership. In this context, the tempered demand seen in April is not unexpected. Fewer than 100 homes were sold, resulting in an absorption rate of 14%. For comparison, this figure falls below the five-year average for April, which sits just above 30%. 

CLARITY IN LEADERSHIP, SAME ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

For Canadians, the federal election was top of mind in the macro landscape last month, with the Liberals returning under a minority government. Two housing proposals stand out from their campaign that could make an impact on the presale market: a reduction in the development charges for multi-residential projects and a GST exemption on new homes under $1 million for first-time buyers. While neither is a silver bullet, they could help improve project feasibility for developers and provide enough incentive to prompt action from some buyers on the sidelines.

In parallel with political developments, Canada’s economic data is showing signs of strain. February saw the weakest monthly GDP in over two years, down 0.2%, adding pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider future rate cuts. While March is expected to post a slight rebound of 0.1%, these figures don’t yet capture the impact of newly introduced tariffs. Many experts anticipate negative GDP growth in Q2 once those effects are fully reflected.

PRESALE LAUNCHES SLOW, RESALE STOCK GROWS

May is expected to follow the launch pace we've seen in 2025, with six projects set to hit the market, adding just over 630 units. The majority of these are low-rise wood-frame developments, with all but one located in the Fraser Valley. About half of these projects are reintroducing themselves with fresh "coming soon" messaging, building on previous rollouts from earlier months.

Resale activity is slowly improving month over month, though it's still below typical spring averages. Greater Vancouver recorded just over 2,100 sales, while the Fraser Valley saw just over 1,000, both down more than 20% compared to last year. With the election behind us, there's hope that the clarity in leadership can stimulate market activity. Inventory remains high, with both regions seeing about a 10% month-over-month increase, pushing Greater Vancouver to over 16,000 active listings and the Fraser Valley to around 10,000. While monthly price declines have been minimal, year-over-year, Greater Vancouver has seen prices drop by nearly 2%, and the Fraser Valley by about 3.5%.

Stay tuned for the upcoming release of Presale Pulse—your all-in-one video briefing on the latest in macroeconomics, presale launches, and resale performance.

Source: mlacanada.com

link:https://mlacanada.com/newsfeed/may-2025-presale-report-presales-stuck-in-neutral-as-buyers-await-policy-clarity

Sales of $4M-plus homes drop nearly 50 per cent as Sotheby’s warns of deepening buyer’s market conditions

A new report about the luxury home market shows a cooling trend for Vancouver condos.Chung Chow, BIV

While Vancouver’s luxury housing market appears entrenched in buyer’s territory this spring, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.

Citing data from the Greater Vancouver Realtors professional association, the brokerage said on Wednesday that residential sales in Metro Vancouver were down 13 per cent in March compared with the same month one year earlier.

Meanwhile, the number of properties listed for sale increased close to 38 per cent during that same period.

Within the City of Vancouver’s luxury market, the first quarter of 2025 saw sales of condos, attached and single-family homes over $4 million decline by 48 per cent year-over-year.

No sales of “ultra-luxury” homes – those $10 million or more – were recorded on Multiple Listings Service during that period, as was the case in the first quarter of 2024.

Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales declined 30 per cent year-over-year, Sotheby’s said.

The $4-million mark is the threshold for “luxury” Sotheby’s uses for Vancouver’s real estate market.

Sotheby’s described Vancouver’s luxury condo market as “soft” during the first quarter, adding buyer’s market conditions “deepened as economic uncertainty discouraged sales activity despite mounting supply.”

The brokerage forecasts that slowing sales will result in a further build-up of inventory. 

Ish Sharmaa date: May 8, 2025

source: Western Investor

link: https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/vancouvers-luxury-housing-market-stalls-as-listings-rise-buyers-hold-back-10627805

The Holborn Group has been trying to develop this downtown site for eight years, and the city hasn't supported earlier proposals. Now, Holborn is proposing to build what would become Metro Vancouver's tallest skyscraper.

A Vancouver developer wants to transform the downtown skyline with a massive development encompassing nearly two entire downtown blocks. It would include a trio of skyscrapers, the largest of which would reach more than 300 metres — the tallest in the city.

The project would be almost 50 per cent taller than the current tallest in Metro Vancouver, which is Two Gilmore Place in Burnaby at 218 m (64 storeys).

The project has been nearly two decades in the making. Now is the right time to move forward, says the president of developer Holborn Group, as Vancouver is growing bigger with “ambitions to be more like a world-class city.”

Holborn has applied to build a project, designed by Henriquez Partners Architects, which involves a total of four towers at two different downtown locations.

An illustration showing a development proposed for downtown Vancouver from the Holborn Group and designed by Henriquez Partners Architects. Sectional view from Seymour Street looking east. Credit: Holborn Group / Henriquez Partners Architects Photo by Norm Li

On the larger of the two sites, Holborn proposes to build three towers between 68 and 80 storeys, including condos, market rental homes, commercial space and a 920-room hotel on the parcel between the 500-block of West Georgia and Dunsmuir streets. This parcel includes the now-vacant site at 500 Dunsmuir St., where a heritage building Holborn bought in 2006 was emptied in 2013 and then ordered demolished earlier this year after the city declared it was at risk of imminent collapse. The parcel also includes The Bay parkade, and the Randall building at 555 West Georgia St., which for years featured a beloved six-storey mural.

The proposal also includes developing a second site owned by Holborn, a Downtown Eastside parking lot, where the company is pitching a 38-storey tower with social housing, child care and an Indigenous art gallery. The entire building would be turned over to the city upon completion.

Demolition of a heritage building at 500 Dunsmuir Street on Jan. 20. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /10106970A

Holborn acquired The Bay parkade and 500 Dunsmuir St. in 2006, and then over the next 18 years acquired most of the other properties on that two-block parcel, with the exception of 570 Dunsmuir St., an eight-storey commercial building that houses private educational institutions and has a different owner. The final piece for Holborn was the acquisition of the Randall building, a 1929-built commercial structure at 555 West Georgia St., last year.

For at least eight years Holborn has been in touch with city hall about developing the downtown site. City hall didn’t support a series of earlier proposals designed by different architects and submitted on behalf of Holborn between 2017 and 2023.

An illustration showing a development proposed for downtown Vancouver from the Holborn Group and designed by Henriquez Partners Architects. View of observation deck looking west. Credit: Holborn Group / Henriquez Partners Architects Photo by Norm Li

“We were told, ‘No, no,’ so many times, so we know what not to do this time,” Holborn president Joo Kim Tiah said with a laugh this week. “I want to say it in a very respectful way. But I think the idea was probably too big at first, because, Vancouver was, maybe, not really used to such an ambitious project.”

But after “having persevered so many years,” Tiah said, he believes city planning staff now see “the city growing bigger and has ambitions to be more like a world-class city.”

The project aligns with priorities of the current city council and planning staff, such as boosting the supply of hotel rooms and homes downtown, Tiah said.

“So as all these things became more and more pressing, now I guess they are now more open to the fact that, ‘Hey, actually a big project like this does bring a lot of benefits’ … I think more and more, over time, they warmed up to the idea.”

An illustration showing a development proposed for downtown Vancouver from the Holborn Group and designed by Henriquez Partners Architects. View of the plaza at Seymour and West Georgia streets. Credit: Holborn Group / Henriquez Partners Architects Photo by Norm Li

Conversations with city hall about the earlier proposals only ever reached the pre-application inquiry stage. About 18 months ago, Henriquez Partners Architects started working on the newest iteration, and last week, the partnership submitted the first formal rezoning application for the project.

Said Gregory Henriquez, the company’s managing principal: “We learned a lot from what the other architects did and tried to incorporate all the lessons learned and comments given, over the years, into this design.”

Henriquez said the design is inspired by ancient glass sea sponge reefs found off the B.C. coast, and they believe the project will be a “landmark in the heart of Vancouver.”

The project has evolved over time.

Earlier versions of the project included office space, but the new design has removed that component, responding to the dwindling demand.

Another major change in the project’s evolution was city council’s decision last year to revise rules protecting public views, which enabled this site to go higher.

Henriquez Partners’ earlier version of the project, designed last year, planned to incorporate the heritage building at 500 Dunsmuir St., Henriquez said.After Vancouver’s chief building official recommended the derelict building’s demolition last December, saying it had become a “danger to public safety,” it was demolished in January. That unexpected development prompted a redesign of the whole project, Henriquez said, changing it from two thicker towers to three thinner ones.

An illustration showing a development proposed for downtown Vancouver from the Holborn Group and designed by Henriquez Partners Architects. View of 388 Abbott St. Credit: Holborn Group / Henriquez Partners Architects Photo by Norm Li

The Abbott Street site that forms the other part of this proposal has been owned by Holborn since 2004. In 2018, Holborn applied to build a 10-storey market rental building on that site, which was approved by the city.

Asked why that rental housing project never moved forward, Tiah said that the company decided it made sense to tie the development of both the Georgia and Abbott properties together, “revitalizing two areas of town.”

The project would include a total of 1,939 new homes, a 920-room hotel, 64,000 square feet of retail space and a public plaza on West Georgia Street.The Abbott site would include 378 non-market homes, in a 38-storey building, roughly the same size as the Woodward’s tower across the street, which was also designed by Henriquez and completed in 2010.

Holborn is a local development company owned by one of Malaysia’s wealthiest families. The developer is known for building Vancouver’s Trump Tower on West Georgia, which has since been renamed, and the Little Mountain project, which was criticized because of delays in delivering the social housing units that were promised to replace those demolished on the site.

By Dan Fumano Published May 08, 2025

Source: Vancouversun.com

link: https://vancouversun.com/news/massive-development-proposed-for-downtown-vancouver?utm_campaign

Do it all at once by adding these steps to your checklist.

Multitasking is never easy. Likewise, buying or selling a home can be daunting, even in the best circumstances. Doing both at once might mean stress overload unless you are prepared and have a plan B for when things go awry. Here are five tips to consider when buying and selling your home at the same time.

1. Assess your situation

Ideally, you want to move into your new place before you leave your old one. But to prepare for buying and selling your home at the same time, you need to know current real estate trends. The best place to start is with a reputable, experienced real estate agent. This person knows the market situation in your area and in the new area you are considering.

An agent will also know if it is a buyer’s or a seller’s market. This is important so you have a sense of how quickly homes are moving and for how much. That will help you with your timeline, your listing price and how much you can afford.

Make sure to choose the same agent for the buying and selling process. Having an agent who understands both ends will be invaluable. The only times this shouldn’t be the case is if you are moving out of province or if the agent is also working with the seller of your new home.

Remember, you have options when it comes to negotiating the length of your close, short-term rentals and other ways to bridge the time between buying and selling. Having an agent to help will make sure you get the best possible terms.

2. Know when to use contract contingencies

Another key is knowing if you need to sell your current home to make the down payment for your new home. If you do, you need to consider a contract contingency when purchasing or applying for a bridge loan.

Contract contingency or conditional sale means the purchase of the new home will depend on the sale of your existing home. This can be dangerous in a seller’s market and could cost you your dream home if you are not careful. If the market is competitive, the seller may not want to decrease their chances of selling by waiting for you to sell your home.

You’ll need to convince the seller your home is in a desirable market, priced right and will sell quickly. If there’s been no movement on the seller’s property and it’s been on the market for a while, they may agree to a contract contingency.

3. Consider a bridge loan

A bridge loan could be a great alternative to contract contingency. As the name implies, it bridges the time between moving into your new place and out of your old one. These loans let you own two homes at the same time by using the equity on your property to help with the down payment of your new house.

Usually, bridge loans are around six months long, but this can vary depending on how long you think you need to sell your home. Keep in mind a lender must still approve you for this loan, too. You’ll need a sale agreement setup for your current home to qualify. Once your old house sells, you can use the proceeds to help pay the bridge loan.

Always have back-up plans when buying and selling at the same time.

4. Factor in the financials

When setting the price of your home, consider what you want to spend on your new home and weigh this against the market value. Leave a cushion when calculating your new home budget. For example, if your current home is assessed at $900,000 and the new home you want is $850,000, then you know the least you’ll accept for your current place is $850,000. If you don’t get at least $850,000 for your current home, then you need to look for a cheaper new home. That is, make sure you cover your new home’s price with your current home’s sale. If you only know the general price range you want for your next purchase, talk with your agent about what you'll need to get from the sale of your current home to cover it.

Have a buffer and manage your expectations. Plus, if your current home was your principal residence for the entire time you owned it, you won’t have to pay capital gains tax when you sell. But if it wasn’t, factor this into the total amount available and work with your agent and an accountant.

Also, don’t assume you can upgrade to a bigger home because you have a current mortgage, have a down payment or are making more income. This is not always the case; know your limits. By having a pre-approved mortgage, you won’t be setting yourself up for disappointment after you find your dream home.

5. Cover yourself between buying and selling

Have a plan B. It’s rare for the new home to close at the same time as your existing home. A little off in either direction and you could be paying dual mortgages or be homeless.

Banks can take up to two to three days to transfer funds, and those transfers are usually done before 3 pm. So, don’t schedule your closing on a Friday and always choose the morning hours. Having this buffer in your schedule will help close the deal on schedule and as planned.

Set up an emergency fund for such a situation. You may find you are in a hotel for a week or two. You might want to consider short term rental options (like an Airbnb). Speaking with friends and family may also give you some options until your new place closes.

Another possibility is a rent-back agreement. This means you would rent your old home back from the buyer (now the owner) from the time of closing until you’re ready to move. The buyer does not have to agree to this, and their own buying and selling situation will likely determine if they agree. But it doesn’t hurt to ask. Have a back-up for this back-up plan, though.

Buying and selling a home at the same time requires coordinating many moving parts. But with some careful planning and a bit of luck, you can do it. Make sure to work with your agent every step of the way and always have other plans ready.

Words by Zak Khan Date 11.07.2024

source: rew.ca

link: https://www.rew.ca/guide/articles/6-tips-to-buying-and-selling-a-home-at-the-same-time