British Columbia’s most populous region has surpassed a growth milestone, and one city continues to be where the most residents call home.
Metro Vancouver Regional District confirmed to Daily Hive Urbanized that there are over three million residents in the region based on the most recent update of population projections.
According to the regional district’s 2024 growth projections update, the City of Vancouver remains the most populous municipality in the province, with Surrey the second largest.
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“Metro Vancouver produces three scenarios for its projections – low, medium, and high – each with slightly varying assumptions,” the district told Daily Hive Urbanized. “The biggest driver for population growth in the region is immigration, so it is important to update projections based on the three-year rolling federal immigration plan, and also to confer with modelers across the country to see how their projections and assumptions are evolving.
“Metro Vancouver works closely with BC Stats, Stats Can, other provinces’ modelers, local First Nations, member jurisdictions and post-secondary institutions.”
According to Statistics Canada population estimates released earlier this year, Metro Vancouver’s 21 municipalities, one electoral area, and one treaty First Nation encompass just over three million people.
That aligns with Metro Vancouver’s own projections for the region for 2024 through the Medium Growth scenario.
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“This number was based on Census data, including Census undercount,” said Metro Vancouver. “Since the 2021 Census data were affected by COVID-19 and less reliable than other census periods, Stats Canada provided estimates to correct population and dwelling unit numbers.
“It is important to note that projections are just that – projections. They are based on models with a set of assumptions.”
Metro Vancouver touted its history of reliable regional population projections, including ones developed in 2011 for Metro 2040 that remained within one per cent of the actual census figures recorded in 2021.
The regional district also added that of its three scenarios, it deems the medium-growth scenario to be the “most likely.”
Under the medium-growth scenario, Vancouver’s population would reach 816,000 in 2030, 912,000 in 2040, and 991,000 in 2050 — up from 698,000 in 2021. Surrey’s medium-growth scenario pegs its population increase at 734,000 in 2030, 859,000 in 2040, and 960,000 by 2050 — up from 597,000 in 2021.
Burnaby is projected to remain Metro Vancouver’s third most populous city across all scenarios. Under the medium-growth scenario, Burnaby’s population would rise from 262,000 in 2021 to 310,000 in 2030, 354,000 in 2040, and 388,000 in 2050.
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver population growth, medium-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
As a whole, Metro Vancouver’s population in a medium-growth scenario would climb from 2.784 million in 2021 to 3.323 million in 2030, 3.81 million in 2040, and 4.21 million in 2050. It is also expected to reach the population milestone of four million by 2045 — nine years earlier than previously projected.
According to the provincial government, the Metro Vancouver Regional District is home to over 50 per cent of British Columbians and is the largest and most dense regional population.
by Daniel Chai|. Apr 2 2025, 11:22 am
source: dailyhive.com
link: https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/metro-vancouver-population-growth-three-million
